Look what I found! It seems we voted to submit the protected rosters 24 hrs after the trade deadline freeze. This is from an email I sent after last year's entry draft (copied in full below):
We made one change to the Rules, effective next year. The "August" trade period is extended to September 15 every year and the protected lists are due 24 hours later on September 16.So there you have it.As you scroll down, you may or may not wish to linger over Dan Frid's exercise in number-crunching. He has proven to a mathematical certainty that the entry draft is an exercise in futility for ya'll. A point otherwise made, surely, by The Thai Domi's continued dominance....xo---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Frid, Dan W <Dan.Frid@keane.com>
Date: 2 October 2009 11:44
Subject: Hot air.
To: ahhl commish <ahhlcommish@gmail.com>...There were, give or take, about 110 protected players not including goalies, leaving about 150 non goalie picks last night for a total of 260 (20 x 13) non goalie players.
Let’s assume that, in general, the 110 protected players represent the top 110 point getters (scorers) in the league, and the next 150 represent the following 150 scorers. Applying this against the top 260 scorers of 2009, you get the following results:
1. Average penalty minutes for top 110 players: 49
2. Average penalty minutes for next 150 players: 47.5
3. Penalty minutes are pretty much a wash, leaving only scoring that matters.
4. Range of points in top 110 players: 113 to 49 = 64 points
5. Range of points for next 150 players: 49 to 30 = 19 points
So spending three hours trying to pronounce names of players we have never heard of is relevant for rookies and sleeper picks (1 or 2 picks), and then.….
Thursday, 7 April 2011
the dan frid analysis
We have nothing to hide here in the AHHL. A faithful correspondent sends along this exchange, reproduced in its entirety, more or less:
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That's nothing but an excuse for mediocrity. And poor reasoning to boot.
ReplyDeleteYes, you take sample sizes of 110 and 150 and it's very bloody likely that the average PIM totals will be similar. That doesn't make PIM "pretty much a wash".
As for the point variance, most of that's occurring within the top 30, leaving the next 80 with a far more gradual decrease. Dan's thesis also fails to account for two core factors distinguishing skaters in this pool: (a) position breakdowns, and (b) PIM (which his reasoning above allows him to ignore).
Instead of figuring out when it's the best time to select D-men or how much weight to pin on PIM, he uses faulty math to throw his hands up in the air and accept 10th place (at best).
Final point - this pool only goes 266 players deep (280 when this was written). That's less than 9 players per NHL team. This is going to sound catty, but if you've never heard of 9 or so players per team, well, one of us is in the wrong pool.
Tim / SCBL